Iran's Nuclear Program: Threat or Deterrence?


Iran’s nuclear program has been one of the most contentious and debated issues in international politics for over two decades. At the center of this global controversy is the question: Is Iran pursuing nuclear weapons as a threat to regional and global security, or is it building nuclear capabilities for deterrence and energy?

This article examines both perspectives—viewing Iran as a threat, particularly from the Israeli and Western viewpoint, and seeing the program as a strategic deterrent, as Iran itself claims.


A Brief History of Iran’s Nuclear Program

Iran’s nuclear ambitions date back to the 1950s under the U.S.-backed Shah, as part of the "Atoms for Peace" program. However, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the program slowed due to political upheaval and international isolation.

By the 1990s and early 2000s, Iran had restarted its nuclear development, claiming peaceful purposes like energy production and medical research. However, reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and intelligence agencies raised concerns about undeclared facilities, uranium enrichment, and weapons-related research.


Why Israel and the West See Iran as a Threat

1. Existential Threat to Israel

Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, due to:

  • Iran’s leadership openly calling for the end of the Israeli state.

  • Iran’s support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas that frequently attack Israel.

  • The fear that a nuclear weapon would give Iran regional impunity to act more aggressively.

Israel has responded with covert operations, including the assassination of nuclear scientists, sabotage of Iranian facilities, and relentless diplomatic efforts to isolate Iran.

2. Regional Instability

A nuclear Iran could spark a regional arms race, with countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt seeking their own nuclear programs. This would dismantle the already fragile security architecture in the Middle East.

3. Potential for Nuclear Proliferation

The U.S. and its allies worry that Iran’s nuclear know-how could eventually be shared with non-state actors or rogue states, heightening global proliferation risks.


Iran’s Perspective: A Case for Deterrence

From Tehran’s viewpoint, its nuclear program is a strategic necessity, not a threat.

1. Surrounded by Hostile Powers

Iran is bordered by U.S. military bases, rival Sunni regimes, and nuclear-armed powers like Pakistan and Israel. In this context, Iran argues that nuclear capabilities serve as a deterrent against foreign invasion, especially after seeing the fates of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi—both of whom lacked nuclear weapons when they were overthrown.

2. Right to Peaceful Nuclear Energy

Iran asserts its legal right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. Iranian officials claim that Western opposition is hypocritical and aimed at denying Iran technological self-sufficiency.

3. Symbol of Sovereignty and Resistance

The nuclear program is also a symbol of national pride, framed by Iranian leaders as resistance against Western imperialism and domination.


The JCPOA: A Hope for Compromise

In 2015, the Iran nuclear deal—formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—was signed between Iran and world powers (U.S., EU, China, Russia). Iran agreed to:

  • Limit uranium enrichment,

  • Reduce centrifuges,

  • Allow IAEA inspections.

In exchange, economic sanctions were lifted.

However, the U.S. unilaterally withdrew in 2018 under President Trump, reigniting tensions. Iran gradually scaled back its commitments, and the deal remains in limbo as of 2025.


Is Iran Close to a Bomb?

Iran has enriched uranium to near-weapons-grade levels (up to 60%), but there is no public proof it has decided to build a bomb. Experts suggest Iran is in a “nuclear threshold” position—capable of weaponization within months, but not there yet.

This ambiguity might be deliberate—enough to deter enemies, but not enough to trigger a full-scale war.


Conclusion: Threat or Deterrence?

Whether Iran's nuclear program is viewed as a threat or a deterrent depends largely on geopolitical perspectives.

  • For Israel and its Western allies, it poses a clear and present danger to regional security and global stability.

  • For Iran, it is a necessary safeguard against aggression, and a symbol of sovereignty.

Ultimately, without sustained diplomacy and mutual trust, the nuclear question will continue to fuel tension, arms races, and the possibility of war. A return to the negotiating table remains the most viable path forward—for peace, security, and the future of the region.

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